Ranjan, R. 2006 Economic impacts of pink hibiscus mealybug in Florida and the United States.. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA) DOI 10.1007/s00477-005-0027-0.
Notes: This paper estimates the expected annual impacts of the Pink Hibiscus Mealybug infestation on the economies of Florida and the rest of the United States. The approach involves a Markov chain analysis wherein both short run and long run expected damage from infestation are calculated. Use is made of the CLIMEX model that predicts the potential pest-establishment regions in the U.S. While predictions based upon the CLIMEX model extend the scope of damage beyond Florida, damage is significantly dependent upon the rate of arrival and detection of species in those regions. Damage is significantly higher when a longer time horizon is considered. When nursery owners bear the full cost of quarantines in the form of loss of sales and treatment costs of infected plants, the cost-effectiveness of quarantines as a regulatory tool is diminished. The long run propensity of the system, in terms of the fraction of time spent in the possible 'states' of infestation and control, determines the extent of damage, and not the annual value of crops that could be potential hosts to the pest.