Ewing, B., Yanai, S., Barbieri, J.F., Luck, R.F., & Forster, L.D. 2002 Event-driven competing risks.. Ecological Modelling 158(1-2): 35-50.
Notes: The California red scale Aonidiella aurantii (Maskell) (Homoptera: Diaspididae) is a major pest of California citrus, with infestations causing growers significant financial losses. It has recently developed resistance to traditional insecticide sprays. An alternative suppression tactic is the release of a biological control agent, Aphytis melinus DeBach (Aphelinidae: Hymenoptera) that feeds on red scale. Although many aspects of the red scale-Aphytis interaction are now understood, it is difficult to differentiate the effects of temperature and population fluctuations in the field. To investigate such complex interactions, we propose a new stochastic modeling technique, based on event-driven competing risks, that incorporates details of life histories as well as the host-parasitoid interaction. Our continuous-time, individual-oriented modeling approach quantifies relationships among individuals and describes the resulting coupling between the interacting populations. The event-structured simulation drives time in contrast to the usual time-driven stochastic dynamic programming. Our system, developed in the public domain using the R statistical package, allows for different biological clocks, since both red scale and Aphytis development respond to temperature (degree-days) while searching female Aphytis follow a diurnal time schedule, contingent upon temperature-dependent egg maturation.